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Climate Prediction Center Issues a La Nina Watch for the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2017-18

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The Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have issued a La Niña Watch for the northern hemisphere Winter of 2017-2018.

Numerous atmospheric and oceanographic indicators are suggestive of the formation of La Niña conditions:

Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures near the Equator have fallen below normal.
Sub-surface equatorial upper ocean heat anomalies fell to below normal values as of late July.

The sub-surface thermocline (abrupt change in water temperature with depth) becomes more shallow approaching the coast of South America.

Increased convective activity (thunderstorms) over Indonesia as evidenced by decreased outgoing long wave radiation.

The model-based probabilistic ENSO forecast is more suggestive of ENSO-neutral conditions, but the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017.

CPC and IRI forecasters favor the results of the Climate Forecast System and the Muti-Model Ensemble based on recent observations.

For more information regarding the ENSO cycle, visit
To read more about the current La Niña Watch, visit

Read More: Governor Walker Announces Next Steps to Building a Safer Alaska in the October Special Session

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